Empirical Insights for Improving Sexual Assault Prevention: Evidence From Baseline Data for a Cluster-Randomized Trial of IMPower and Sources of Strength.

The empirical science of measuring and preventing sexual assault is in its infancy, especially when considering adolescents in developing nations. We analyze pre-intervention data collected in a two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial of a classroom-based sexual assault prevention program deployed to Class 6 students around Nairobi, Kenya. We estimate that 7.2% of girls were raped in the prior 12 months. We identify school- and individual-level risk factors for rape. We isolate, as much as possible, variation in probability of rape attributable to a subset of these risk factors. We discuss statistical challenges and solutions in each of these domains.