Ultrafine Particle Number Concentration Model For Estimating Retrospective And Prospective Long-Term Ambient Exposures In Urban Neighborhoods

Short-term exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP; <100 nm in diameter), which are present at high concentrations near busy roadways, is associated with markers of cardiovascular and respiratory disease risk. To date, few long-term studies (months to years) have been conducted due to the challenges of long-term exposure assignment. To address this, we modified hybrid land-use regression models of particle number concentrations (PNCs; a proxy for UFP) for two study areas in Boston (MA) by replacing the measured PNC term with an hourly model and adjusting for overprediction. The hourly PNC models used covariates for meteorology, traffic, and sulfur dioxide concentrations (a marker of secondary particle formation). We compared model performance against long-term PNC data collected continuously from 9 years before and up to 3 years after the model-development period. Model predictions captured the major temporal variations in the data and model performance remained relatively stable retrospectively and prospectively. The Pearson correlation of modeled versus measured hourly log-transformed PNC at a long-term monitoring site for 9 years prior was 0.74. Our results demonstrate that highly resolved spatial-temporal PNC models are capable of estimating ambient concentrations retrospectively and prospectively with generally good accuracy, giving us confidence in using these models in epidemiological studies.