A continued role of Short-Lived Climate Forcers under the Shared SocioeconomicPathways

Abstract. Mitigation of non-CO2 emissions plays a key role in meeting the Paris Agreement ambitions and Sustainable Development Goals. Implementation of respective policies addressing these targets mainly occur at sectoral and regional levels and designing efficient mitigation strategies therefore relies on detailed knowledge about the mix of emissions from individual sources and their subsequent climate impact. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of near- and long-term global temperature responses to emissions of CO2 and individual short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from 7 sectors and 13 regions – for present-day emissions and their continued evolution as projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We demonstrate the key role of CO2 in driving both near- and long-term warming, and restate the importance of mitigating methane emissions, from agriculture, waste management and energy productions, as the primary strategy to further limit near-term warming. Due to high current emissions of cooling SLCFs, policies targeting end-of-pipe energy sector emissions may result in net added warming unless accompanied by simultaneous methane and/or CO2 reductions. East Asia, North America and Europe remain the largest contributors to total net warming until 2100, regardless of scenario, while South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara overtakes Europe by the end of the century in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. We find that SLCFs will continue to play a role in many regions, particularly those including low- to medium-income countries, under most of the SSPs considered here. Our dataset is made available in an accessible format, aiming also at decision-makers, to support further studies into the implications of policy implementation at the sectoral and regional scales.