Erratum: The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID 19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China (International Journal of Infectious Diseases (2020) 95 (288–293), (S1201971220301375), (10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.018))

ObjectivesSince January 23, 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemic have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved, as well. However, the daily reported cases remaining at a high level make the epidemic trend prediction difficult.MethodsSince the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemic's process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including the cumulative number of reported, deceased, quarantined and suspected cases.ResultsResults show that the trend of the epidemic mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states, and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemic's peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while newly reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in the suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models.ConclusionsThe uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemic is still uncertain, and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China.