Reducing emergency cesarean delivery and improving the primiparous experience: Findings of the RECIPE study

Objective: The ability to predict the need for emergency Cesarean delivery holds the potential to facilitate birth choices. The objective of the RECIPE study (Reducing Emergency Cesarean delivery and Improving the Primiparous Experience) was to externally validate a Cesarean delivery risk prediction model. This model, developed by the Genesis study, identified five key predictive factors for emergency Cesarean delivery: maternal age, maternal height, BMI, fetal head circumference (HC) and fetal abdominal circumference (AC).Study Design: This prospective, observational study was conducted in two tertiary referral perinatal centers. Inclusion criteria were as follows: primiparous women with a singleton, cephalic presentation fetus in the absence of fetal growth restriction (FGR), oligohydramnios, pre-eclampsia, pre-existing diabetes mellitus or an indication for planned Cesarean delivery. Between 38 + 0 and 40 + 6 weeks' gestational age, participants attended for prenatal assessment that enabled the determination of an individualized risk calculation for emergency Cesarean delivery during labour based on maternal height, BMI, fetal HC and AC, with crucially both participants and care providers being blinded to the resultant risk prediction score. Labor, delivery and postnatal outcomes were ascertained. Calibration and receiver operator curves were generated to determine the predictive capacity for emergency Cesarean delivery of the Genesis risk prediction model in this cohort.Results: 559 primiparous participants were enrolled from May 2017 to April 2019, of whom 142 (25 %) had an emergency Cesarean delivery during labour. Participants with a low predicted risk score (<10 %) had a mean predicted rate of8% (+/- standard deviation of2%) and a similarly low actual observed rate of Cesarean delivery (8%). Participants with a high predicted risk (>50 %) had a mean predicted Cesarean delivery rate of 64 %(+/- standard deviation of 9%) and also had a high actual observed Cesarean delivery rate (62 %). The calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated that this validation study had comparable discriminatory power for emergency Cesarean delivery to that described in the original Genesis study. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) in Genesis was 0.69, whereas the AUC in RECIPE was 0.72, which reflects good predictive capacity of the risk prediction model.Conclusion: The accuracy of the Genesis Cesarean delivery prediction tool is supported by this validation study. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.