MuLBSTA score is a useful tool for predicting COVID-19 disease behavior

Background: The prediction of COVID-19 disease behavior in the early phase of infection is challenging but urgently needed. MuLBSTA score is a scoring system that predicts the mortality of viral pneumonia induced by a variety of viruses, including coronavirus, but the scoring system has not been verified in novel coronavirus pneumonia. The aim of this study was to validate this scoring system for estimating the risk of disease worsening in patients with COVID-19.Methods: This study included the patients who were treated between April 1 st and March 13 th , 2020. The patients were classified into mild, moderate, and severe groups according to the extent of respiratory failure. MuLBSTA score was applied to estimate the risk of disease worsening in each severity group and we validated the utility of the scoring system.Results: A total of 72 patients were analyzed. Among the 46 patients with mild disease, 17 showed disease progression to moderate or severe disease after admission. The model showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of only 34.5% with a cut-off value of 5 points. Among the 55 patients with mild or moderate disease, 6 deteriorated to severe disease, and the model showed a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 71.4% with a cut-off value of 11 points.Conclusions: This study showed that MuLBSTA score is a potentially useful tool for predicting COVID-19 disease behavior. This scoring system may be used as one of the criteria to identify high-risk patients worsening to life-threatening status. (C) 2020 Japanese Society of Chemotherapy and The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.