Multivariable prediction model of intensive care unit transfer and death: a French prospective cohort study of COVID 19 patients.

Background Prognostic factors of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients among European population are lacking. Our objective was to identify early prognostic factors upon admission to optimize the management of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a medical ward. Methods French single-center prospective cohort study of 152 patients with positive Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov2) real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay, hospitalized in a medical ward. Multivariable models and a simplified scoring system assessed predictive factors of intensive care unit (ICU) transfer or death at day 14 (D14), of being discharge alive and severe status at D14 (remaining with ventilation, or death). A validation was performed on an external sample of 132 patients. Findings At D14, the probability of ICU transfer or death was 32% (95% CI 25-40). Older age (OR 2·61, 95% CI 0·96-7·10), poorer respiratory presentation (OR 4·04 per 1-point increment on World Health Organization (WHO) clinical scale, 95% CI 1·76-9·25), higher CRP-level (OR 1·63 per 100mg/L increment, 95% CI 0·98-2·71) and lower lymphocytes count (OR 0·36 per 1000/mm3 increment, 95% CI 0·13-0·99) were associated with an increased risk of ICU requirement or death. A 8-point ordinal scale scoring system defined low (score 0-2), moderate (score 3-5), and high (score 6-8) risk patients, with predicted respectively 2%, 25% and 81% risk of ICU transfer or death at D14. Interpretation In this prospective cohort study of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a medical ward in France, 32% were transferred to ICU or died. A simplified scoring system at admission predicted the outcome at D14. Funding No funding. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Clinical Trial NCT04320017 ### Funding Statement No external funding was received. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data collected in this study are represented and available in the manuscript and supplementary material