Using simulation Technology to Analyze the COVID 19 Epidemic in Changsha, Hunan Province, China

This study mainly uses simulation technology to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic in Changsha, Hunan Province, China, and analyze the impact of different prevention and control measures on the epidemic. we Collect the information of all COVID-19 patients in Changsha from January 21, 2020 to March 14, 2020 and relevant policies during the COVID-19 epidemic in Changsha. Established the SEIAR infectious disease dynamics model under natural conditions, and added isolation measures on this basis. Using Anylogic8.5, the COVID-19 epidemic in Changsha City was simulated under various conditions based on the established model.In this study we find that There were 242 COVID-19 patients in Changsha. including 121 males (50%) and 121 females (50%).Most cases occurred between February 6 and February 16. Through the calculation of the Rt during the epidemic in Changsha, it is found that it is reasonable to resume work on February 8, because the Rt value of Changsha dropped below 1 at this time.The simulation results show that reducing the contact rate of residents and reducing the success rate of virus transmission (wearing masks, disinfection, etc.) can effectively prevent the spread of COVID-19 and significantly reduce the number of peak patients.We believe that the disease is mainly spread by the respiratory tract. Therefore, the simulation results show that whether in the early or mid-stage of the epidemic, quarantining the names of residents or reducing the contact rate of residents is very effective in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic.