Association Of Circulating Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 Levels With Cardiovascular Mortality A Meta-Analysis Of Population-Based Studies

Importance Human genetics and studies in experimental models support a key role of monocyte-chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) in atherosclerosis. Yet, the associations of circulating MCP-1 levels with risk of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular death in the general population remain largely unexplored. Objective To explore whether circulating levels of MCP-1 are associated with risk of incident coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular mortality in the general population. Data Sources and Selection Population-based cohort studies, identified through a systematic review, that have examined associations of circulating MCP-1 levels with cardiovascular end points. Data Extraction and Synthesis Using a prespecified harmonized analysis plan, study-specific summary data were obtained from Cox regression models after excluding individuals with overt cardiovascular disease at baseline. Derived hazard ratios (HRs) were synthesized using random-effects meta-analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures Incident coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, and unstable angina), nonfatal myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death (from cardiac or cerebrovascular causes). Results The meta-analysis included 7 cohort studies involving 21401 individuals (mean [SD] age, 53.7 [10.2] years; 10012 men [46.8%]). Mean (SD) follow-up was 15.3 (4.5) years (326392 person-years at risk). In models adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, higher MCP-1 levels at baseline were associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (HR per 1-SD increment in MCP-1 levels: 1.06 [95% CI, 1.01-1.11]; P = .01), nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01-1.13]; P = .02), and cardiovascular death (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.05-1.20]; P < .001). In analyses comparing MCP-1 quartiles, these associations followed dose-response patterns. After additionally adjusting for vascular risk factors, the risk estimates were attenuated, but the associations of MCP-1 levels with cardiovascular death remained statistically significant, as did the association of MCP-1 levels in the upper quartile with coronary heart disease. There was no significant heterogeneity; the results did not change in sensitivity analyses excluding events occurring in the first 5 years after MCP-1 measurement, and the risk estimates were stable after additional adjustments for circulating levels of interleukin-6 and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Conclusions and Relevance Higher circulating MCP-1 levels are associated with higher long-term cardiovascular mortality in community-dwelling individuals free of overt cardiovascular disease. These findings provide further support for a key role of MCP-1-signaling in cardiovascular disease.Question Are circulating monocyte-chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) levels associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease in the general population? Findings In this meta-analysis of 7 population-based studies involving 21401 individuals who were free of overt cardiovascular disease, higher baseline circulating MCP-1 levels were associated with higher risk of cardiovascular mortality over a follow-up extending beyond 20 years. Meaning By complementing evidence from previous genetic and experimental studies, these results provide additional support for a key role of MCP-1 in cardiovascular disease development.This meta-analysis of 7 population-based cohort studies assesses the association between circulating monocyte-chemoattractant protein-1 levels and risk of cardiovascular disease and death.