Risk of the introduction of Lobesia botrana in suitable areas for Vitis vinifera

The European grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a pest that has great potential to cause damage to vineyards. Considering that L. botrana is one of the major grapevine pests globally, it is essential to analyze the risk of its introduction and determine places with higher potential for the establishment of this pest. In this study, we highlighted the most prone regions in the world for the occurrence of L. botrana and its main host, Vitis vinifera , based on the bioclimatic and occurrence region for the pest and the crop, using ecological niche modeling with the MaxEnt algorithm. A survey was also made of the location of 3700 airports around the world, to emphasize the possible influx of people and material carrying the pest in different countries. The climatic variables that most influenced the establishment of L. botrana were annual average temperature, annual mean precipitation, and annual temperature variation. The regions with the greatest possibility of the occurrence of both species ( L. botrana and V. vinifera ) were those with average annual temperatures close to 13 °C, a mean annual precipitation between 600 and 700 mm, an annual temperature variation of approximately 28 °C, an average daily temperature range of 10 °C, and precipitation of approximately 20 mm in the coldest month. These characteristics are found in almost all vineyard regions globally. This study allowed us to determine the relationship between the environmental preferences of L. botrana and V. vinifera , making it possible to choose locations to focus on combatting the pest and implementing preventive actions.