Simple Control for Complex Pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic began nearly two years ago, yet schools, businesses, and other organizations are still struggling to keep the risk of disease outbreak low while returning to (near) normal functionality. Observations from this past year suggest that this goal can be achieved through the right balance of mitigation strategies, which may include some combination of mask use, vaccinations, viral testing, and contact tracing. The choice of mitigation measures will be uniquely based on the needs and available resources of each organization. This article presents practical guidance for creating these policies based on an analytical model of disease spread that captures the combined effects of each of these interventions. The resulting guidance is tested through simulation across a wide range of parameters and through synthesis of infection case data on college campuses.