Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts
Judgment and Decision Making, pp. 863-880, 2020.
Abstract:
Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these ``knowns\u0027\u0027 about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration...More
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