Direct Immune-Scir Public-Opinion Propagation Model Based on Real-Time Online Users*

Current public-opinion propagation research usually focused on closed network topologies without considering the fluctuation of the number of network users or the impact of social factors on propagation. Thus, it remains difficult to accurately describe the public-opinion propagation rules of social networks. In order to study the rules of public opinion spread on dynamic social networks, by analyzing the activity of social-network users and the regulatory role of relevant departments in the spread of public opinion, concepts of additional user and offline rates are introduced, and the direct immune-susceptible, contacted, infected, and refractory (DI-SCIR) public-opinion propagation model based on real-time online users is established. The interventional force of relevant departments, credibility of real information, and time of intervention are considered, and a public-opinion propagation control strategy based on direct immunity is proposed. The equilibrium point and the basic reproduction number of the model are theoretically analyzed to obtain boundary conditions for public-opinion propagation. Simulation results show that the new model can accurately reflect the propagation rules of public opinion. When the basic reproduction number is less than 1, public opinion will eventually disappear in the network. Social factors can significantly influence the time and scope of public opinion spread on social networks. By controlling social factors, relevant departments can analyze the rules of public opinion spread on social networks to suppress the propagate of negative public opinion and provide a powerful tool to ensure security and stability of society.