Trends in Intentions to Remain Childless in the United States

The purpose of this study is to describe population-level trends in intentions to remain childless ( ITRC) among men and women in the United States in the first decades of the twenty-first century. We use a sample of 31,739 women and 24,524 men aged 18–44 from a cross-sectional and nationally representative survey, the National Survey of Family Growth. Our analyses utilize five of the survey's cycles: from 2002 through 2015–2017. Trends in the unadjusted proportions of men and women who report ITRC are presented, along with predicted probabilities of reporting ITRC from multivariate regressions. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the prevalence of ITRC increased in the general population of men and women in the United States as well as among the youngest adults aged 18–24. If ITRC are realized, permanent childlessness rates could increase in the near future, contributing to the ongoing fertility decline in the United States. Further analyses uncover similarities and differences in the ITRC trends and correlates between men and women. Increases in ITRC among women are connected to changes in the socio-demographic composition of the population but ITRC increases among men are not connected to population composition changes. In addition, a positive education gradient is observed in ITRC among women but not among men. These variations in ITRC prompt a call for further research into gender and intentions for childlessness.