Van Allen Belt Punctures And Their Correlation With Solar Wind, Geomagnetic Activity, And Ulf Waves

We investigate the rare events of sudden appearances of relativistic electrons (>700 keV), which are normally confined to the Van Allen belts, in the slot region. The frequency of occurrence of these events is on average 1-2 per year. To cope with the scarcity of events, in this study, we examine 21 years of trapped relativistic electron fluxes available from the POES and MetOp Space Environment Monitor (SEM-2). Our statistical analysis shows that these events can occur even during moderate geomagnetic activity. Occurrence of these events correlates with high-speed solar winds or interplanetary coronal mass ejections depending on the phase of the solar cycle. A strong correlation of these events is found with ultra-low frequency (ULF) wave activity, which can be used to predict these events with more than 75% accuracy.