The Effect of Economic Downturns on State Budgets: a Counterfactual Analysis of the Great Recession

ABSTRACT I propose a novel method to estimate the effect of recessions on government finances. Using the Great Recession and state budgets as an empirical example, I find large and prolonged budget cuts, but also increases in transfers to populations in need. The proposed method can be easily transferred to other recessions, different spending categories, and local governments receiving state transfers, such as school districts.