HLA-C* 04:01 is a Genetic Risk Allele for Severe Course of COVID-19

Background Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been increasing demand to identify predictors of severe clinical course in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Human leukocyte antigen alleles (HLA) have been suggested as potential genetic host factors. We sought to evaluate this hypothesis by conducting an international multicenter study using HLA sequencing with subsequent independent validation. Methods We analyzed a total of 332 samples. First, we enrolled 233 patients in Germany, Spain, and Switzerland for HLA and whole exome sequencing. Furthermore, we validated our results in a public data set (United States, n=99). Patients older than 18 years presenting with COVID-19 were included, representing the full spectrum of the disease. HLA candidate alleles were identified in the derivation cohort (n=92) and tested in two independent validation cohorts (n=240). Results We identified HLA-C* 04:01 as a novel genetic predictor for severe clinical course in COVID-19. Carriers of HLA-C* 04:01 had twice the risk of intubation when infected with SARS-CoV-2 (hazard ratio 2.1, adjusted p-value=0.0036). Importantly, these findings were successfully replicated in an independent data set. Furthermore, our findings are biologically plausible, as HLA-C* 04:01 has fewer predicted bindings sites with relevant SARS-CoV-2 peptides as compared to other HLA alleles. Exome sequencing confirmed findings from HLA analysis. Conclusions HLA-C* 04:01 carriage is associated with a twofold increased risk of intubation in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Testing for HLA-C* 04:01 could have clinical implications to identify high-risk patients and individualize management.