A DNA-damage immune response assay combined with PET biomarkers predicts response to neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and survival in oesophageal adenocarcinoma

18F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET-CT may guide treatment decisions in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). This study evaluated the added value of maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax) to a novel DNA-damage immune response (DDIR) assay to improve pathological response prediction. The diagnostic accuracy of PET response and the prognostic significance of PET metrics for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed. This was a retrospective, single-centre study of OAC patients treated with neo-adjuvant chemotherapy from 2003 to 2014. SUVmax was recorded from baseline and repeat PET-CT after completion of pre-operative chemotherapy. Logistic regression models tested the additional predictive value of PET metrics combined with the DDIR assay for pathological response. Cox regression models tested the prognostic significance of PET metrics for RFS and OS. In total, 113 patients were included; 25 (22.1%) were DDIR positive and 88 (77.9%) were DDIR negative. 69 (61.1%) were PET responders (SUVmax reduction of 35%) and 44 (38.9%) were PET non-responders. After adding PET metrics to DDIR status, post-chemotherapy SUVmax (hazard ratio (HR) 0.75, p = 0.02), SUVmax change (HR 1.04, p = 0.003) and an optimum SUVmax reduction of 46.5% (HR 4.36, p = 0.021) showed additional value for predicting pathological response. The optimised SUVmax threshold was independently significant for RFS (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.26–0.85, p = 0.012) and OS (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.26–0.99, p = 0.047). This study demonstrated the additional value of PET metrics, when combined with a novel DDIR assay, to predict pathological response in OAC patients treated with neo-adjuvant chemotherapy. Furthermore, an optimised SUVmax reduction threshold for pathological response was calculated and was independently significant for RFS and OS.