Five-year cumulative incidence and progression of age-related macular degeneration: results from the German population-based Gutenberg Health Study (GHS)

Purpose Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a major cause of visual impairment and blindness. This study evaluates the incidence and progression of AMD in a large German cohort. Methods The Gutenberg Health Study (GHS) is a population-based, prospective, observational cohort study in Germany that includes 15,010 participants between 35 and 74 years of age. The baseline examination, including fundus photography, was conducted between 2007 and 2012, and the 5-year follow-up examination was performed between 2012 and 2017. AMD grading of fundus photographs was performed according to the Rotterdam Eye Study classification. The 5-year cumulative incidence and progression of AMD were calculated. Poisson regression analysis was conducted to investigate factors associated with the cumulative incidence and progression of AMD. Results Six-thousand-eight-hundred-eighty-eight participants (49.8%, n = 3427 female) were included in the analysis. AMD prevalence was 8.5% [95% CI: 7.9–9.2%] at baseline and 10.3% [95% CI: 9.6–11.1%] at follow-up. The cumulative 5-year-incidence was 2.0% [1.7–2.4%]. AMD progression within 5 years was seen in 18.1% [95% CI: 15.1–21.5%] of the participants. AMD incidence and AMD progression were associated with higher age, for each 10-year increase in age, the risk of AMD doubles (RR = 2.30), and the risk of progression of the disease is increased by 1.6. while AMD incidence also with pseudophakic status. Conclusions In summary, this population-based sample provides substantial epidemiologic data from a large German cohort, including data on progression and cumulative incidence of macular degeneration in younger age groups. AMD progression over 5 years is common in the German population, 18.1% of subjects with AMD showed progression in at least one eye in this time frame and is associated with higher age. Nevertheless, although usually defined to occur over the age of 50, in this cohort AMD occurred in 0.5% and AMD progression occurred in 5.4% of those already affected in the youngest age group before 50 years of age.