Use of scenario tree modelling to plan freedom from infection surveillance: Mycoplasma bovis in New Zealand

•The New Zealand Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI) is operating an eradication program for an incursion of Mycoplasma bovis in cattle.•The program is expensive for industry and should be ceased as soon as practical after eradication has been achieved.•We have used stochastic scenario tree modelling (STM) to plan the freedom surveillance program to demonstrate disease has been eradicated.•Current surveillance components could demonstrate freedom in 2–4 years, but surveillance intensity could be reduced. Herd specificity will need to be perfect.•STM can be used to analyse simulation models of a national herd to plan freedom surveillance and has the capacity to lead to more efficient programs.