Predictors of children’s achievement: analysis of the Australian National Numeracy Assessment Program

In this study, we examine children’s National Assessment Program—Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) achievement predictors, which may enable or limit their numeracy performance and assess the relative importance of the predictor variables. Our data source was the NAPLAN numeracy results of Queensland schools from 2014 to 2017. Years 3 and 5 children’s NAPLAN numeracy scores were analysed using a hierarchical multiple regression model. We examined eight variables grouped into four themes to determine their predictive value for children’s numeracy performance in NAPLAN. Findings from this study indicate that parent’s educational level, parent’s occupation and indigenous status variables accounted for 10–11% of the total variance, while geolocation and sector type contributed an additional 0.2–0.4% of the variance. Gender and language background other than English (LBOTE) contributed 0.1–0.4% of the variance. These results were consistent across levels (Years 3 and 5) and test years (2014–2017). When these predictors were controlled, the influence of parent’s post-school education and LBOTE status were less and non-significant. Previous NAPLAN numeracy results for Year 5 children were found to be very large in its predictive value (R 2 = 0.50). The implications of these results for teachers, parents and researchers are described.