The Great Trade Collapse and the determinants of UK export margins: A cohort- and firm-level matching approach

This paper uses a detailed data set of UK firms between 2005 and 16, to investigate how export participation and export values were affected by the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, and particularly the post-crisis recovery period of 2011-16. Viewing the post-crisis period as a treatment compared to before the crisis, we compare firm export propensity and export values using a propensity score matching approach. We conclude that the underlying relationships between size, productivity, creditworthiness and exports remained remarkably consistent throughout the period. After correcting for TFP and credit scores, we find relatively constant export propensity across the whole time period, except for younger firms in services industries, whose export propensity increased. Our results suggest that the slowdown in trade in this period has not been attributable to a change in underlying firm export behaviour.