Prediction Of Local Geomagnetic Activity From Data Of "Lviv" Magnetic Observatory

For the first time in world practice, the predictive models were constructed for X, Y, Z geomagnetic elements. Based on these models, the prediction was made with 3 hours lead time using data of the "Lviv" magnetic observatory. The properties of models are as follows: observatory - LVV, predicted values - XYZ; lead time - 3 hours; correlation coefficients' averaged measurement data - 0.824 (X), 0.811 (Y), 0.804 (Z); prediction efficiency - 0.816 (X), 0.803 (Y), 0.801 (Z); skill score - 0.115 (X), 0.095 (Y), 0.099 (Z). The developed models were tested at the Main Center of Special Monitoring, and they were found to meet the Basic Requirements for operational predictive models.