Comparison of the impact of China’s railway investment and road investment on the economy and air pollution emissions

Traffic pollution threatens both human health and climate stability. The Chinese government issued the “Mid- and Long-term Railway Network Plan” and the “National Highway Network Plan (2013–2030)” in 2004 and 2013, respectively, aiming at building a national railway network and a national highway network with reasonable layout, wide coverage and economic efficiency. In the future, both railway and road investment will be further increased, which has the potential for a larger impact on air pollution emissions. However, comparison between the impact of railway investment and that road investment in China is lacking. In this study, we use a multiregion and multisectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the difference in the impact of railway investment and that of road investment on the economy and air pollution emissions in China. We find that with a fixed amount of investment, road investment may lead to more economic growth than railway investment, mainly through influencing the motor equipment, other transport equipment, construction and road transport sectors. In addition, compared to railway investment, road investment promotes a greater emission reduction in CO2, CO, SO2, NOX, and PM2.5, especially in Hubei, Guizhou, and Guangdong provinces, where both energy consumption and the output of heavy industry will decrease significantly. Therefore, future investment in roads has a stronger promotional effect on both economic growth and air pollution emission reduction than railway investment.