Estimating the effect of conflict on agricultural activity in the Central African Republic with remotely sensed data

Ongoing armed conflict poses major challenges to the economic recovery and development of the Central African Republic. Although the conflict occurs in agricultural areas, little evidence exists on the magnitude of the effect of conflict on agricultural activity and the channels. We construct a geo-referenced monthly panel (2000-2018) during which numerous conflict events occurred. Exploiting the prevalent practice of burning fields as a measure of active land under preparation for cultivation, we find that the presence of a conflict event 12 months prior lowers fire presence during land preparation by 9% and lowers biomass by 8% during the sowing/growing season particularly in areas where maize, millet and cassava are highly suitable. While the nature of this effect differs across crops that are driven largely by differences in production processes particularly during land preparation, these decreases are suggestive of the abandoning of farm lands due to conflict.