Forecasting COVID-19 Infection Trends and New Hospital Admissions in Spain due to SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Omicron

Objectives: On November 26, 2021, WHO designated the variant B.1.1.529 as a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VoC), named Omicron, originally identified in South Africa. Several mutations in Omicron indicate that it may have an impact on how it spreads, resistance to vaccination, or the severity of illness it causes. We used our previous modelling algorithms to forecast the spread of Omicron in England. Design: We followed EQUATOR TRIPOD guidance for multivariable prediction models. Setting: England. Participants: Not applicable. Interventions: Non-interventional, observational study with a predicted forecast of outcomes. Main outcome measures: Trends in daily COVID-19 cases with a 7-day moving average and of new hospital admissions. Methods: Modelling included a third-degree polynomial curve in existing epidemiological trends on the spread of Omicron and a new Gaussian curve to estimate a downward trend after a peak in England. Results: Up to February 15, 2022, we estimated a projection of 250,000 COVID-19 daily cases of Omicron spread in the worse scenario, and 170,000 in the best scenario. Omicron might represent a relative increase from the background daily rates of COVID-19 infection in England of mid December 2021 of 1.9 to 2.8-fold. With a 5-day lag-time, daily new hospital admissions would peak at around 5,063 on January 23, 2022 in the worse scenario. Conclusion: This warning of pandemic surge of COVID-19 due to Omicron is calling for further reinforcing in England and elsewhere of universal hygiene interventions (indoor ventilation, social distance, and face masks), and anticipating the need of new total or partial lockdowns in England.