Income shock and food insecurity prediction Vietnam under the pandemic

•We present a new method to predict changes in food insecurity risks due to income shocks such as the COVID-19 global pandemic at a granular level.•Our method only uses existing household survey data and external information about income shock at the aggregate level.•We apply the method to predict food insecurity changes during the pandemic at the district level in Vietnam.•Although the national average change of food insecurity is predicted to be small, changes can be quite large in certain districts.