Family History of Atrial Fibrillation and Risk of Cardiovascular Events

Background: To investigate the association between family history of atrial fibrillation (AF) with cardiovascular events (CVEs), major adverse cardiac events (MACE), and cardiovascular mortality. Methods: Multicenter prospective observational cohort study including 1722 nonvalvular AF patients from February 2008 to August 2019 in Italy. Family history of AF was defined as the presence of AF in a first-degree relative: mother, father, sibling, or children. Primary outcome was a composite of CVEs including fatal/nonfatal ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death. Second, we analyzed the association with major adverse cardiac event. Results: Mean age was 74.6±9.4 years; 44% of women. Family history of AF was detected in 368 (21.4%) patients, and 3.5% had ≥2 relatives affected by AF. Age of AF onset progressively decreased from patients without family history of AF, compared with those with single and multiple first-degree affected relatives ( P <0.001). During a mean follow-up of 23.7 months (4606 patients/y) 145 CVEs (3.15%/y), 98 major adverse cardiac event (2.13%/y), and 57 cardiovascular deaths (0.97%/y) occurred. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, family history of AF was associated with a higher risk of CVEs (hazard ratio, 1.524 [95% CI, 1.021–2.274], P =0.039), major adverse cardiac event (hazard ratio, 1.917 [95% CI, 1.207–3.045], P =0.006), and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 2.008 [95% CI, 1.047–3.851], P =0.036). Subgroup analysis showed that this association was modified by age, sex, and prior ischemic heart disease. Conclusions: In a cohort of elderly patients with a high atherosclerotic burden, family history of AF is evident in >20% of patients and was associated with an increased risk for CVEs and mortality. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT01882114.