Prospective Validation of a Host Blood Transcriptomic Biomarker for Pulmonary Tuberculosis in People Living with HIV: A Diagnostic and Prognostic Accuracy Study

Background: We tested diagnostic and prognostic performance of a host blood transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (RISK11) for screening of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in a prospective, community-based cohort. Methods: Ambulant adult volunteers living with HIV were enrolled at five South African sites. RISK11 status was assessed at baseline by real-time PCR. Participants and study staff were blinded to the result. Participants underwent active surveillance for microbiologically-confirmed tuberculosis from enrolment through 15 months. The primary outcomes were prevalence and cumulative incidence of two-sputum-sample positive tuberculosis in RISK11+ versus RISK11- participants. Findings: Among 820 participants with valid RISK11 results, eight (1%) tuberculosis cases were identified at baseline. Risk of prevalent tuberculosis was 13·1-fold (95%CI 2·1-81·6) greater in RISK11+ than RISK11- participants, with tuberculosis prevalence of 2·5% and 0·2%, respectively. RISK11 had diagnostic area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) 88·2%; sensitivity 87·5% and specificity 65·8% at the pre-defined threshold (60%).Thereafter, eight tuberculosis cases were identified through median 15 months follow-up. Tuberculosis incidence was 2·5 vs 0·2 per 100 person-years in RISK11+ compared to RISK11- participants with cumulative incidence ratio 16·0 (95%CI 2·0-129·5); AUC 80·0%; sensitivity 88·6% and specificity 68·9%. By comparison, QuantiFERON TB Gold-Plus (QFT) had a cumulative incidence ratio of 2·0 (95%CI 0·5-8·4); AUC 70·8%; sensitivity 62·1% and specificity 56·2%. Interpretation: RISK11 identified prevalent tuberculosis and predicted risk of progression to incident tuberculosis within 15 months in ambulant PLHIV. Performance approached the World Health Organization Target Product Profile benchmarks for screening and prognostic tests for tuberculosis. QFT performance fell short of the prognostic benchmark. Funding Statement: The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (OPP1151915) and by the Strategic Health Innovation Partnerships Unit of the South African Medical Research Council with funds received from the South African Department of Science and Technology. The BMGF contributed to the study design. The regulatory sponsor was the University of Cape Town. Declaration of Interests: AP-N, GW, GC, TJS, and MH report grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, during the conduct of the study; AP-N and GW report grants from the South African Medical Research Council, during the conduct of the study; GW and TJS report grants from the South African National Research Foundation, during the conduct of the study. In addition, AP-N and TJS have patents of the RISK11 and RISK6 signatures pending; GW has a patent “TB diagnostic markers” (PCT/IB2013/054377) issued and a patent “Method for diagnosing TB” (PCT/IB2017/052142) pending. The remaining authors have no competing interests to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: The study protocol (Supplement) was approved by the Institutional Human Ethics Committees of each participating site. All participants provided written informed consent in their language of choice.