Spontaneous Population Mobility and Demand for Transportation during the Pandemic: Evidence from Taiwan

Using administrative traffic data from Taiwan, this paper quantifies the effect of the COVID-­19 outbreak on the spontaneous demand for public and private transportation. Despite extremely low numbers of infections—and therefore the absence of mobility restrictions—the public has reacted strongly to confirmations of infections. Our results suggest that the COVID­-19 outbreak reduced the numbers of rail passengers by between 40% and 60% when the numbers of new COVID­-19 cases hit their peak. In contrast, during the same period, the numbers of compact cars on highways increased by 20% in the rush hours. This finding suggests that individuals not only reduced their mobility, but they also substituted public transport for private modes of travel. Finally, transportation patterns did not fall back to “normal” levels until the mid-­June, even though Taiwan had not had any new local COVID­-19 cases since mid­-April. We discuss how Taiwan’s experience can provide a useful lesson for future pandemics.