Modelling the Impact of COVID-19 on Meningococcal Carriage and Disease in the UK

Background: Enforced country-wide social distancing and suspension of most non-emergency medical care due to the COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly affect public health in multiple ways. While non-pharmaceutical interventions are expected to reduce transmission of several infectious diseases, severe disruptions to healthcare systems have hampered diagnosis, treatment, and routine vaccination. We examine the effect of this disruption on meningococcal disease and vaccination in the UK. Methods: By adapting an existing mathematical model for meningococcal carriage and disease, we address the following questions: a) What is the predicted impact of social distancing on infection rates? b) What effect might reductions in vaccine uptake have on future infection rates? c) Will catch-up vaccination campaigns be necessary for the adolescent MenACWY vaccine? Findings: Model findings indicate that COVID-19 social distancing is expected to have caused significant reductions in the carriage prevalence of meningococcal strains A, C, W, and Y. In all scenarios modelled, pandemic social mixing assumptions outweighed potential falls in vaccine uptake (of 10%, 34%, and 50%). Furthermore, a return to pre-pandemic carriage prevalence is expected to be slow, greater than 20 years. Interpretation: COVID-19 social distancing is expected to have caused significant reductions in the carriage prevalence of meningococcal strains A, C, W, and Y. It seems unlikely that a MenACWY catch-up campaign is necessary due to the persisting low carriage prevalence we predict. Funding Information: Wellcome Trust; NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisation. Declaration of Interests: Authors have no competing interests to declare.