Early and Dynamic Socio-Academic Variables Related to Dropout Intention: A Predictive Model Made During the Pandemic

Social and academic integration variables have been shown to be relevant for the understanding of university dropout. However, there is less evidence regarding the influence of these variables on dropout intention, as well as the predictive models that explain their relationships. Improvements in this topic become relevant considering that dropout intention stands as a useful measure to anticipate and intervene this phenomenon. The objective of the present study was to evaluate a predictive model for university dropout intention that considers the relationships between social and academic variables during the first university semester of 2020. The research was conducted using a cross-sectional associative-predictive design, with a convenience sampling (n = 711) due to the restrictions of the pandemic period. The results showed a good fit of the proposed hypothetical model that explained 38.7% of dropout intention. Both social support and perceived social isolation predicted the sense of belonging and, through it, engagement. Previous academic performance predicted early academic performance and, through it, engagement. The set of variables predicted the intention to quit through engagement. These results are a contribution both to the understanding of the phenomenon and to guide potential interventions in the early stages of the university experience.