Intra-urban variation in tuberculosis and community socioeconomic deprivation in Lisbon metropolitan area: a Bayesian approach

Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a recognized threat to global efforts to TB control and remains a priority of the National Tuberculosis Programs. Additionally, social determinants and socioeconomic deprivation have since long been associated with worse health and perceived as important risk factors for TB. This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of non-MDR-TB and MDR-TB across parishes of the Lisbon metropolitan area of Portugal and to estimate the association between non-MDR-TB and MDR-TB and socioeconomic deprivation. Methods In this study, we used hierarchical Bayesian spatial models to analyze the spatial distribution of notification of non-MDR-TB and MDR-TB cases for the period from 2000 to 2016 across 127 parishes of the seven municipalities of the Lisbon metropolitan area (Almada, Amadora, Lisboa, Loures, Odivelas, Oeiras, Sintra), using the Portuguese TB Surveillance System (SVIG-TB). In order to characterise the populations, we used the European Deprivation Index for Portugal (EDI-PT) as an indicator of poverty and estimated the association between non-MDR-TB and MDR-TB and socioeconomic deprivation. Results The notification rates per 10,000 population of non-MDR TB ranged from 18.95 to 217.49 notifications and that of MDR TB ranged from 0.83 to 3.70. We identified 54 high-risk areas for non-MDR-TB and 13 high-risk areas for MDR-TB. Parishes in the third [relative risk (RR) = 1.281, 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.021–1.606], fourth (RR = 1.786, 95% CrI: 1.420–2.241) and fifth (RR = 1.935, 95% CrI: 1.536–2.438) quintile of socioeconomic deprivation presented higher non-MDR-TB notifications rates. Parishes in the fourth (RR = 2.246, 95% CrI: 1.374–3.684) and fifth (RR = 1.828, 95% CrI: 1.049–3.155) quintile of socioeconomic deprivation also presented higher MDR-TB notifications rates. Conclusions We demonstrated significant heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of both non-MDR-TB and MDR-TB at the parish level and we found that socioeconomically disadvantaged parishes are disproportionally affected by both non-MDR-TB and MDR-TB. Our findings suggest that the emergence of MDR-TB and transmission are specific from each location and often different from the non-MDR-TB settings. We identified priority areas for intervention for a more efficient plan of control and prevention of non-MDR-TB and MDR-TB. Graphical Abstract