Early non-cancer mortality risk prediction after curative-intent radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

•Early mortality after radical RT/CRT in HNSCC patients is often not cancer-related.•An early non-cancer risk prediction model was developed.•After internal validation, the AUC was 0.74 and calibration was good.•Pneumonia was estimated to be the cause of death in 32% of early non-cancer deaths.•The provided risk estimates can help select patients for supportive interventions.