Real-time Mortality Risk Calculator Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: Quantifying the Impact of Perioperative Events

BACKGROUND:Estimation of mortality risk traditionally has only included preoperative factors. We sought to develop "real-time" mortality risk-calculator for patients who undergo pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) based on preoperative factors, as well as events that occurred during the course of patient's surgery and hospitalization.METHODS:Patients who underwent PD from 2014 to 2018 were identified in the ACS-NSQIP dataset. Training and validation cohorts were created. Pre-, intra-, and post-operative models to predict 30-day mortality were developed based on perioperative variables selected by stepwise cox regression analyses; model performance was assessed using AUC.RESULTS:Among 17,683 patients who underwent PD, 1.6% died within 30-days. Patient factors and events associated with 30-day mortality were incorporated into a risk calculator (https://ktsahara.shinyapps.io/Real-timePD/). The accuracy of the risk-calculator increased relative to hospital time-course in both the training (AUC, pre-:0.696, intra-:0.724, post-operative:0.871) and validation (AUC, pre-:0.681, intra-:0.702, post-operative:0.850) cohorts. One in 3 patients had a concordant calculated risk of mortality using pre-versus postoperative variables to inform the risk model (kappa = 0.474).CONCLUSION:Risk of mortality fluctuated over the hospital course following PD and preoperative risk assessment was often discordant with risk assessed at other periods. The proposed "real-time" calculator may help better stratify patients with increased risk of 30-day mortality.