Extent of vascular plaque predicts future cardiovascular events in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

Objective Patients with SLE have increased prevalence of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) and subclinical atherosclerosis. Although 30-40% of patients with SLE have vascular plaque on ultrasound scanning, this study is the first to consider the relationship between total burden of plaque and subsequent CVD risk. Methods One hundred patients with SLE and without any previous clinical CVD underwent vascular ultrasound scans of both carotid and both common femoral bifurcations between 2011 and 2013. Clinical, serological, demographic and treatment data were collected at baseline. Patients were followed till 2020 to identify those who developed new onset coronary disease or stroke. Statistical analysis to identify factors associated with increased risk of developing CVD events was carried out. Results Thirty-six patients had plaque at baseline. During follow-up five patients (all had baseline plaque) developed coronary disease and two, without baseline plaque, developed lacunar strokes. Mean (s.d.) age of these patients was 46.5 (4.5) years. Patients with three or more baseline bifurcations with plaque were 10 times more likely to develop CVD than those with 0-2 bifurcations with plaques (OR 9.9, P = 0.009). TPA > 16mm(2) was associated with six-fold increased risk of CVD (OR = 6.44, P = 0.028). Patients with disease duration > 14 years were more likely than those with disease duration < 14 years to develop CVD (OR 8.3 P = 0.043) Conclusions The number of bifurcations with plaque and TPA in patients with SLE may be valuable in assessing risk of CVD and deciding on clinical measures to reduce this risk.