Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: a review

Abstract Universal access to electricity is an essential part of sub-Saharan Africa’s path to development. With the United Nations setting Goal 7 of its Sustainable Development Goals to be universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity, substantial research efforts have been made to optimize electricity supply based on projected demand in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, most of these projections of electricity demand do not explicitly account for latent demand (i.e., electricity demand that would exist if the necessary techno-economic conditions were met). Our paper reviews electricity demand estimation and consumption literature to propose a framework for quantifying latent demand. In our study, we found that of the 56 papers reviewed only 3 (5%) of them incorporated latent demand in their projection of electricity demand in SSA. Majority of the literature on electricity consumption and demand estimation in SSA use econometric models to identify determinants of electricity consumption and project future demand. Furthermore, we identified population density, urbanization, household income, electricity price, market value of crops and availability of natural resources to be significant determinants of electricity consumption in SSA. We conclude the review by proposing a methodology for more accurately projecting latent demand in sub-Saharan Africa. Incorporating latent demand in electrification models would help inform energy sector stakeholders in SSA, especially investors and policymakers, about which sectors and geographic locations hold potential for wealth creation via electricity access.