Earthquakes Induced by Wastewater Disposal near Musreau Lake, Alberta, 2018-2020

Although hydraulic fracturing-induced earthquakes have been widely reported in Alberta, Canada, only one seismic cluster (the Cordel Field) has thus far been linked to wastewater disposal (WD). In this study, we report a statistically significant spatiotemporal correlation between recent earthquakes and nearby WD wells near Musreau Lake-the second disposal-induced earthquake swarm in Alberta. This newly occurred swarm contains five events with local magnitudes ML> 3 from January 2018 to March 2020, forming into three tightly spaced clusters. The refined locations and focal mechanisms suggest a similar to 10 km long northwest-southeast-trending rupture along the northern Rocky Mountains that developed over time, during which both poroelastic effects and static stress transfer played key roles. Through a statistical analysis of all reported induced earthquake clusters in the western Canada sedimentary basin (WCSB), we propose a linear predictive relationship (i.e., the "Interpolated Strike Orientation" model) between fault rupture direction and fault distance to the Rocky Mountains. This observation-based model, which is supported by both the focal mechanisms of the natural earthquakes and the nearby northwest-striking geological faults, is a new and useful reference for future assessments of seismic hazard in the WCSB.