Transmission pattern of shigellosis in Wuhan City, China: a modelling study

The article aims to estimate and forecast the transmissibility of shigellosis and explore the association of meteorological factors with shigellosis. The mathematical model named Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic/Asymptomatic-Recovered-Water/Food (SEIARW) was used to explore the feature of shigellosis transmission based on the data of Wuhan City, China, from 2005 to 2017. The study applied effective reproduction number (R-eff) to estimate the transmissibility. Daily meteorological data from 2008 to 2017 were used to determine Spearman's correlation with reported new cases and R-eff. The SEIARW model fit the data well (chi(2) = 0.00046, p > 0.999). The simulation results showed that the reservoir-to-person transmission of the shigellosis route has been interrupted. The R-eff would be reduced to a transmission threshold of 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-1.19) in 2035. Reducing the infectious period to 11.25 days would also decrease the value of R-eff to 0.99. There was a significant correlation between new cases of shigellosis and atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind speed and sun hours per day. The correlation coefficients, although statistically significant, were very low (<0.3). In Wuhan, China, the main transmission pattern of shigellosis is person-to-person. Meteorological factors, especially daily atmospheric pressure and temperature, may influence the epidemic of shigellosis.