Stability of chironomid community structure during historic climatic and environmental change in subarctic Alaska

By understanding lake ecosystem resilience in the face of increasing environmental and anthropogenic stress, we can hope to anticipate future ecosystem instability. We assess recent historic ecosystem resilience using composition and network analyses of empirical zoobenthos chironomid (Diptera: Chironomidae; nonbiting midges) reconstructions from three Subarctic Alaskan lakes, spanning the last c. 200 yr. We measured community richness, turnover and structure using taxon richness, beta diversity, and network skewness, respectively. Simulated taxonomic networks were created to establish the sensitivity of these metrics to changes in taxon connectivity, and to inform the interpretation of empirical chironomid records. The models indicated that beta diversity was more sensitive to taxon loss, while skewness was more sensitive to taxon gain. Both beta diversity and skewness were required to understand structural change under taxon replacement. The simulated arrival of strongly connected taxa caused a greater decrease in skewness than the arrival of weakly connected taxa. The empirical data sets indicated a rise in taxon richness (measured as rarefaction) and beta diversity in the recent samples. Changes in chironomid composition were associated with climate warming (replacement of cold taxa with temperate taxa) and increased lake biological productivity (the arrival of macrophyte-associated taxa). Skewness was predominantly negative across the lakes, indicating high taxon connectivity and structural stress. However, little directional change in the skewness trends suggests some resilience within the chironomid community structures in relation to the current levels of climate and environmental stress. Continued climatic warming, and associated rises in nutrient levels, may cause further structural stress and ecological degradation.