Probability Prediction of Short-term Allowable Carrying Capacity of Overhead Conductors

Predicting the short-term allowable carrying capacity (STACC) of the overhead conductor is of great significance to make full use of the current-carrying capacity of transmission components. The current prediction of the STACC does not consider time variation of meteorological elements in the allowable temperature rise time, which is inconsistent with the actual law and leads to the inaccuracy of results. This paper proposes a probability prediction method of the STACC considering the changes of meteorological environment during the prediction period. This method predicts the probability density functions of the initial conductor temperature and meteorological elements within the target period, and then calculates the probability distribution of the STACC by thermal dynamic process simulation. The case study substantiates the better prediction effect of the proposed method.