Projection of end-of-life vehicle population and recyclable metal resources: Provincial-level gaps in China

With the rapid development of China's automobile industry, the surge in the number of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) has put great pressure on the environment. On the other hand, ELVs contain multiple recyclable metal resources and can be regarded as an important source of urban mining. In order to explore the potential of secondary resources supplies from urban mines in the automotive industry, considering different policy conditions, this study not only forecasts China's recyclable metal resources from 2021 to 2030 at the national level, but also introduces two indicators of area and population, focusing on the differences in provincial distribution. Combined with the characteristics of each province, the gap between future demand for vehicle scrap recycling and the current status of China's ELV management is analyzed. The results show that although the extension of vehicle service life in the future will effectively reduce the number of ELVs, there will be an obvious imbalance of ELV between provinces by 2030 due to the different development conditions of provinces. In the future, considering the insufficient landfills and high disposal costs in relatively developed areas, ELV recycling channels should be set up in multiple geographical locations within China, so that the pressure of controlling total domestic ELV recycling can be eased, as well as the governance of dismantling enterprises.