Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as a predictor for cardiovascular diseases: a cohort study in Tianjin, China

Based on a cohort in Tianjin, China, we explore the relationship between neutrophils-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). From January 2010 to December 2019, 4667 eligible participants aged more than 40 years old, CVDs-free, and registered in two community health service centers were recruited and followed up. The values of NLR collected at baseline were included in Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate its association with the incidence risk of CVDs. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated before and after adjustment for potential confounding factors selected by LASSO regression. During a total of 13,691 person-years of follow-up among all participants (median, 2.0 years; interquartile range, 1.7–2.5), 150 (3.42%) newly diagnosed CVDs events occurred, with the incidence density of CVDs of 10.96/1000 person-year. The incidence density in subgroups categorized by tertiles of baseline NLR was 8.08/1000, 11.74/1000, and 13.24/1000, respectively ( p trend = 0.019). COX models revealed that after adjustment for potential confounders, NLR (as a continuous variable) was significantly related to the risk of total CVDs (HR 1.10, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.17), myocardial infarction (HR 1.12, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.20), and ischemic stroke (HR 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.33). When NLR was categorized into tertiles, participants in the top tertile had a significantly higher risk of CVDs (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.06, 2.44) and myocardial infarction (HR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.09, 3.27) relative to those in the bottom tertile.