Development and validation of a clinical prediction model of acute kidney injury in intensive care unit patients at a rural tertiary teaching hospital in South Africa: a study protocol

Introduction Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a decline in renal function lasting hours to days. The rising global incidence of AKI, and associated costs of renal replacement therapy, is a public health priority. With the only therapeutic option being supportive therapy, prevention and early diagnosis will facilitate timely interventions to prevent progression to chronic kidney disease. While many factors have been identified as predictive of AKI, none have shown adequate sensitivity or specificity on their own. Many tools have been developed in developed-country cohorts with higher rates of non-communicable disease, and few have been validated and practically implemented. The development and validation of a predictive tool incorporating clinical, biochemical and imaging parameters, as well as quantification of their impact on the development of AKI, should make timely and improved prediction of AKI possible. This study is positioned to develop and validate an AKI prediction tool in critically ill patients at a rural tertiary hospital in South Africa. Method and analysis Critically ill patients will be followed from admission until discharge or death. Risk factors for AKI will be identified and their impact quantified using statistical modelling. Internal validation of the developed model will be done on separate patients admitted at a different time. Furthermore, patients developing AKI will be monitored for 3 months to assess renal recovery and quality of life. The study will also explore the utility of endothelial monitoring using the biomarker Syndecan-1 and capillary leak measurements in predicting persistent AKI. Ethics and dissemination The study has been approved by the Walter Sisulu University Faculty of Health Science Research Ethics and Biosafety Committee (WSU No. 005/2021), and the Eastern Cape Department of Health Research Ethics (approval number: EC 202103006). The findings will be shared with facility management, and presented at relevant conferences and seminars.