Incipient speciation, high genetic diversity, and ecological divergence in the alligator bark juniper suggest complex demographic changes during the Pleistocene

The most recent glacial cycles of the Pleistocene affected the distribution, population sizes, and levels of genetic structure of temperate-forest species in the main Mexican mountain systems. Our objective was to investigate the effects these cycles had on the genetic structure and distribution of a dominant species of the "mexical" vegetation across North and Central America. We studied the genetic diversity of Juniperus deppeana, a conifer distributed from the Southwestern United States to the highlands of Central America. We combined information of one plastid marker and two nuclear markers to infer phylogeographic structure, genetic diversity and demographic changes. We also characterized the climatic niche for each variety to infer the plausible area of suitability during past climatic conditions and to evaluate climatic niche discontinuities along with the species distribution. We found a marked phylogeographic structure separating the populations North and South of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, with populations to the South of this barrier forming a distinct genetic cluster corresponding to Juniperus deppeana var. gamboana. We also found signals of population expansion in the Northern genetic cluster. Ecological niche modeling results confirmed climatic niche differences and discontinuities among J. deppeana varieties and heterogeneous responses to climatic oscillations. Overall, J. deppeana's genetic diversity has been marked by distribution shifts, population growth and secondary contact the North, and in situ permanence in the South since the last interglacial to the present. High genetic variation suggests a wide and climatically diverse distribution during climatic oscillations. We detected the existence of two main genetic clusters, supporting previous proposals that Juniperus deppeana and Juniperus gamboana may be considered two separate species.