Subclinical Risk Factors for Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction Among Black Adults

IMPORTANCE Sparse data exist regarding the contributions of subclinical impairments in cardiovascular and noncardiovascular function to incident heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) among Black US residents, limiting understanding of the etiology of HF subtypes. OBJECTIVES To identify subclinical cardiovascular and noncardiovascular risk factors associated with HFrEF and HFpEF in Black US residents. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cohort study used cross-sectional and time-to-event analysis with data from the community-based Jackson Heart Study (JHS), a longitudinal cohort study with baseline data collected from 2000 to 2004 (visit 1) and 10-year follow-up for incident HF. Black US residents from the Jackson, Mississippi, metropolitan area enrolled in JHS; those with prevalent HF, with moderate or greater aortic or mitral valve diseases on visit 1, who died before 2005, and who had missing HF status on follow-up were excluded. The analysis included 4361 participants and was performed between June 2020 to August 2021. EXPOSURES Quantitative measures of cardiovascular (left ventricular mass index [LVMI], left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF], left atrial [LA] diameter, and pulse pressure) and noncardiovascular (percent predicted forced expiration volume in 1 second [FEV1 (percent predicted)], estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), waist circumference, and hemoglobin A(1c) [HbA(1c)] level) organ function. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident HF, HFrEF, and HFpEF over 10-year follow-up. RESULTS The 4361 participants had a mean (SD) age of 54 (13); 2776 (64%) were women; and there were 163 HFpEF and 146 HFrEF events. In multivariable models incorporating measures reflecting each organ system, factors associated with incident HFpEF included greater LA diameter (hazard ratio [HR], 1.23; 95% CI, 1.03-1.47; P = .02), higher pulse pressure (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.05-1.44; P = .009), lower FEV1 (percent predicted) (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.04-1.43; P = .02), lower eGFR (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.19-1.72; P < .001), higher HbA(1c) level (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.07-1.45; P = .005), and higher waist circumference (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.18-1.69; P < .001). Factors associated with incident HFrEF included greater LVMI (HR, 1.25; 1.07-1.46; P = .005), lower LVEF (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.42-1.91; P < .001), lower FEV1 (percent predicted) (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.00-1.42; P = .047), and lower eGFR (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.04-155; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this community-based cohort study of Black US residents, subclinical impairments in cardiovascular and noncardiovascular organ function were differentially associated with risk of incident HFpEF and HFrEF.