Eucalypt Recruitment and Invasion Potential in Protected Areas of the Iberian Peninsula under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Eucalyptus globulus Labill. stands have been expanding in protected areas (sites) of the Natura 2000 network in the Iberian Peninsula (Iberia). This expansion is mostly human-driven, but there is increasing evidence of plant recruitment and escape from cultivation areas. Therefore, it is important to assess the recruitment and invasion potential of sites and associated habitats and how future climate may change this potential. Here, we use SDMs to project current and future climatic suitability for E. globulus recruitment in Iberia and combine this suitability with local factors to rate the current recruitment potential of eucalypt stands. This potential is then extrapolated to neighbour areas in Natura 2000 sites to assess the invasion potential. The results show a wide recruitment range along coastal regions of western and northern Iberia (83,275 km(2)) and a northward contraction under climate change, similar to the trend projected for plantation suitability. Recruitment potential of any level was identified in 989 km(2), while invasion potential was identified in 878 km(2) across 176 Natura 2000 sites. Heathlands and riparian forests were associated with the largest recruitment and invasion potential areas. This study may help in preventing further negative impacts in protected areas and habitats already affected by E. globulus expansion.