The Clinical and Economic Impact of a Nonavalent Versus Bivalent Human Papillomavirus National Vaccination Program in Taiwan.

OBJECTIVES:This study aimed to estimate the epidemiologic and economic impact of a nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program for 13- to 14-year-old females compared with that of the bivalent vaccine in Taiwan. METHODS:A previously developed dynamic transmission model for the nonavalent HPV vaccine was adapted to the Taiwan setting. The natural history of cervical cancer and genital warts was simulated by the HPV model assuming an 80% vaccination coverage rate in girls aged 13 to 14 years of age with a 2-dose schedule for the nonavalent and bivalent HPV vaccines. A lifetime duration of vaccine protection was assumed for the HPV vaccine types. RESULTS:The model estimated that the nonavalent HPV vaccine would prevent an additional 15 951 cervical cancer cases, 6600 cervical cancer-related deaths, 176 702 grade 2 or grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia cases, 103 959 grade 1 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia cases, and 1 115 317 genital warts cases compared with the bivalent HPV vaccine. The nonavalent HPV vaccination program was projected to cost an additional New Taiwan dollars (NTD) 675.21 per person and to produce an additional 0.00271 quality-adjusted life-year per person over 100 years compared with the bivalent HPV vaccine. Thus, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the nonavalent HPV vaccine versus the bivalent HPV vaccine was NTD 249 462/quality-adjusted life-year. CONCLUSIONS:A nonavalent HPV vaccination program for 13- to 14-year-old girls would have additional public health and economic impacts and would be highly cost-effective compared with the bivalent HPV vaccine, relative to per capita gross domestic product, which is estimated at NTD 746 526 for Taiwan.