Origin of the Warm Arctic–Cold North American Pattern on the Intraseasonal Time Scale

Abstract The warm Arctic–cold continent pattern (WACC) of near-surface air temperature variability has often been associated with the connection between Arctic sea ice reduction and cold weather over the midlatitude continents. Whether the existence of this pattern is due to variability of sea ice or is caused by atmospheric internal dynamics is subject to debate. Based on a long integration of a primitive equation atmospheric model (SGCM), this study examines the origin of the warm Arctic–cold North American pattern (WACNA), which is characterized by a pair of opposite surface air temperature anomalies over the high-latitude Chukchi–Bering Sea region and the North American continent, in boreal winter on the intraseasonal time scale. The model atmosphere is maintained by a time-independent forcing, so that atmospheric internal dynamics is the only source of variability. It is found that the SGCM model simulates well the behavior of the observed WACNA pattern. The WACNA pattern develops by interacting with the time-mean flow and synoptic-scale transient eddies. Two pathways of Rossby wave propagation are associated with WACNA. The northern pathway originates from eastern Siberia moving eastward across the Bering Strait to Canada, and the southern pathway is rooted in the subtropical waveguide propagating across the eastern North Pacific. Our simulation of this pattern implies that tropospheric dynamics alone can generate the WACNA, and the predictability associated with this pattern is likely limited by its internal dynamics nature. Significance Statement The warm Arctic–cold continent pattern of temperature variability has often been associated with the connection between Arctic sea ice reduction and cold weather over the midlatitude continents, which implies possible impacts of polar warming on midlatitude climate. There has been debate on whether the existence of this pattern depends on variability of sea ice or can be caused by processes within the atmosphere. In this study, we use a simple atmospheric model, which has a constant forcing; thus, atmospheric internal dynamics is the only source of variability. We show that atmospheric internal dynamics alone can generate the warm Arctic–cold North American pattern. The result has implications for our understanding of the impact of global warming.