Characterizing Spatiotemporal Patterns of Winter Wheat Phenology from 1981 to 2016 in North China by Improving Phenology Estimation

Phenology provides important information for wheat growth management and the estimation of wheat yield and quality. The relative threshold method has been widely used to retrieve phenological metrics from remotely sensed data owing to its simplicity. However, the thresholds vary substantially among phenological metrics and locations, hampering us from effectively detecting spatial and temporal variations in winter wheat phenology. In this study, we developed a calibrated relative threshold method based on ground phenological observations. Compared with the traditional relative threshold method, our method can minimize the bias and uncertainty caused by unreasonable thresholds in determining phenological dates. On this basis, seven key phenological dates and three growth periods of winter wheat were estimated from long-term series (1981-2016) of the remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for North China (106 degrees 18 '-122 degrees 41 ' E, 28 degrees 59 '-39 degrees 57 ' N). Results show that the pre-wintering phenological dates of winter wheat (i.e., emergence and tillering) occurred in December in the south and in mid- to late- October in the north, while the post-wintering phenological dates (i.e., green-up onset, jointing, heading, milky stage, and maturity) exhibited the opposite pattern, that is, January to May in the south and February to June in the north. Consequently, the vegetative growth period increased from 49 days in the south to 77 in the north, and the reproductive growth period decreased from 51 days to 29 days. At the regional scale, all winter wheat phenological dates predominantly advanced, with the most pronounced advancement being for green-up onset (-0.10 days/year, p > 0.1), emergence (-0.09 days/year, p > 0.1), and jointing (-0.08 days/year, p > 0.1). The vegetative growth period and reproductive growth period at the regional scale predominantly extended by 0.03 (p > 0.1) and 0.09 (p < 0.001) days/year, respectively. In general, the later phenological events (i.e., heading, milky stage, and maturity) tended to advance with higher temperature, while the earlier phenological events (i.e., emergence, tillering, green-up onset, and jointing) showed a weak correlation with temperature, suggesting that the earlier events might be mainly affected by management while later ones were more responsive to warming. These findings provide a critical reference for improving winter wheat management under the ongoing climate warming.